China will defend its interests in Afghanistan, but remain cautious and opt for a regional approach.

The conquest of Kabul was one thing; building a stable Emirate will be much more difficult.

Hard military defences required this soft and delicate core of Western society to be preserved first.

Moscow will continue to exploit Europe’s internal divisions, to exploit its energy dependence, and enhance its own strategic autonomy.

The long-term consequence of China positioning itself at the heart of this vast Eurasian market, though, is an imperial order of a scale not seen before. America will never check China in the Indo-Pacific, if it is allowed to become dominant on the Eurasian landmass.

The EU has become a facade of clever slogans and speeches, behind which a generation of tepid politicians and technocrats hides.

China is emerging as a formidable power in the heart of Eurasia. It is in the interest of Europe to balance China’s rise and small countries must contribute. Balancing must work inside-out: from fortifying the ‘soft’ core of values to strengthening the ‘hard’ capacity to pressure China where it is most sensitive.

The main consequence of the era of globalization is that it made authoritarianism very strong, despite being well aware of the consequences. Turning the tide requires in the first placed that Western countries become more aware of what is at stake. You cannot consider any form of defence if a large part of a society considers it more desirable to relinquish its dignity than to stand up for it.